February Supply and Demand Report Summary

USDA released their monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report early Thursday morning (Feb 9, 2012). The report states that current marketing year (2011/12) corn, soybean and wheat ending stocks are projected at 801, 275 and 845 million bushels, respectively. Cotton ending stocks are currently projected at 3.8 million bales, while rice ending stocks are at 39.5 million hundredweight. These projections were lowered for corn and wheat, raised for cotton and rice, and unchanged for soybeans when compared to last month’s report. The ending stocks forecast for corn and soybeans were above pre-report projections, which respectively were 797 and 267 million bushels.

 The ratio of ending stocks to amount used followed the ending stocks change. The stocks-to-use ratio was lower  for corn and wheat at 6.3% and 39.5%, respectively, compared to 6.7% and 41.2% in January. The ratio was higher for cotton and rice at 26.2% and 18.5%, respectively, versus 25.3% 18.0% last month.  Soybean stocks-to-use was unchanged from last month.

Globally, corn production was lowered about 4 million metric tons – largely a result of decreased production in Argentina. Soybean production was lowered by 5.53 million metric tons globally, with the 81% of the losses stemming from Brazil (down 2 million metric tons) and Argentina (down 2.5 million metric tons). World cotton production was mostly unchanged, raised half a million bales, but ending stocks were raised by 2.42 million bales mainly due to higher carry-over in India. Global wheat production was slightly modified, raised 1.38 million metric tons, and ending stocks were raised a bit more at 3.08 million metric tons.