Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks

USDA released their annual Prospective Plantings report and quarterly Grain Stocks reports today (Mar 28). The acreage report was largely in-line with pre-report expectations, but the stocks report had quite a shock for corn supplies and a slight surprise for soybeans and wheat. As a result of the unexpected higher supplies from the stocks report markets were down rather hard.

The stocks report was much less friendly. Corn in elevators across the U.S. on March 1st totaled 5.400 billion bushles (down from 6.023 billion last year but much higher than the 5.030 billion expected). Soybean and wheat stocks were higher than expected as well, but not to the degree of corn. Stocks of soybeans totaled 0.993 billion bushels (down from last year’s March 1 stocks of 1.374 billion but higher than the 0.947 expected. Wheat stocks totaled 1.234 billion bushels on March 1 (up from last year’s stocks of 1.199 billion and higher than the 1.167 expected).

Corn acres are forecast at 97.282 million nationally (almost equal with 2012’s plantings and with expected acres). Cotton acres are forecast at 10.026 million (down 18.6% from last year and down 3.6% from Informa Economics’ forecast). Soybean acres are forecast at 77.126 million (down 0.1% from last year and down 1.8% from expected). Wheat acres are forecast at 56.44 million (up 1.3% from 2012 and up 0.1% from pre-report expectations).

Some quick observations from the plantings report:

• North Dakota corn acres have doubled since 2010.
• Texas’ grain sorghum acres increased 30% from 2012, likely chipping away at the state’s cotton acres.
• Texas’ cotton acres fell by 1.047 million but the state still accounts for 55% of U.S. acres.
• Illinois appears to have rotated to soybeans this year (corn acres fell by 400,000 and soybean acres grew by 350,000)

The report is summarized here: