August Supply and Demand Report Recap

Soybeans

Soybeans also saw bullish news in the August WASDE report. Both planted and harvested acres were revised down by half a million acres from last month’s projections. Soybean yields were also revised down by 1.9 bu/acre to 42.6 bu/acre. The yield estimate was more than a bushel below what many analysts were expecting. The lower acres and yields for soybeans add up to a 165 million bushel decrease in the soybean supply compared to last month, significantly lower than expected. Exports were revised down 65 million bushels and crush was revised down 20 million bushels resulting in ending stocks of 220 million bushels. The ending stocks are 75 million bushels lower than last month’s estimate and 42 million bushels lower than expected. The bullish report has given soybean markets a significant boost today with September soybeans finishing up 38 cents/bu on the day.

Corn

The August WASDE report can be considered bullish for the corn markets. Many analysts were expecting an increase in corn yields and production for this year’s corn crop, but the USDA is projecting lower yields and production. The projected corn production is revised down 187 million bushels from the July report at 13.76 billion bushels. The decrease in production comes from a decrease in expected yields to 154.4 bu/acre, down 2.1 bu/acre from last month’s estimate. Despite lower corn prices, feed and residual use has been revised down by 50 million bushels and exports have been revised down by 25 million bushels. Although decreased use has partially offset the lower production, ending stocks were revised down by 122 million bushels to 1.837 billion bushels. The August WASDE report helped to end the slide in corn prices with nearby corn futures finishing up six cents on the day.

Cotton

USDA’s projection for 2013 cotton yield declined from 831 pounds per acre last month to 813 in this month’s report. Upland yield was lower compared to 2012 in 10 of 17 states reported by USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service’s Crop Production report. For Texas, Georgia, and North Carolina (accounting for 66 percent of projected 2013 harvested acres), upland yield is expected to be lower by 27, 150, and 239 pounds per acre. Ending stocks for the 2013/14 marketing year were lowered by 100,000 bales as a result and are currently projected at 2.80 million. Exports were reduced from 11.0 million bales to 10.6 offsetting some of the reduction in production. Stocks-to-use is currently estimated at 19.8 percent compared to 20.7 percent expected in last month’s report. Global ending stocks were also lowered to 93.77 million bales compared to 94.34 projected last month.

Wheat

Little change was expected for wheat in the latest supply and demand report and for the most part expectations held true. The projected harvested acres, yield, and production remained the same between the July and August WASDE reports. All uses except for exports also remained the same in the WASDE report, however the USDA has increased the expected exports of U.S. wheat by 25 million bushels to 1.1 billion bushels. As a result of the increase in exports, wheat ending stocks were revised downward by 25 million bushels to 551 million bushels. The slightly bullish report has helped September futures close up a penny on the day.

[Soybean, Corn, and Wheat commentary provided by Brian Williams; Cotton commentary provided by John Michael Riley]